This won’t be a year defined by a single, comforting question — like whether the next Avengers movie can top the last one. The old rule of thumb, “more of the same, plus 10 percent,” has guided Hollywood safely through decades of uncertainty. Next year, that math stops working.
The realistic range of outcomes for 2026 runs from wholesale collapse — abandonment of infrastructure, talent flight, creative capitulation — to a genuine resurgence, marked by renewed ambition, indie power, cultural relevance and audience enthusiasm. Uncomfortably, there’s evidence for both.
Still, it’s December. And there’s no creature more willing to rush into uncertainty than a showbiz pundit staring down list season. So let’s dispense with the caveats and make some educated guesses about where this industry is headed.
Some of what follows may read like wishcasting. Guilty. While the fundamentals deserve a clear-eyed look, I’m not yet prepared to surrender the idea that Hollywood — battered, overleveraged and profoundly misaligned — still has a comeback in it.
If that means a few of these scenarios resemble fan fiction, so be it.
With the disclaimers out of the way, here’s the question that will define the year ahead:
BABY ON BOARD Pedro Pascal, pictured with the character Grogu, in The Mandalorian and Grogu. (Disney/Lucasfilm)
In the past few years — really, since Covid — we’ve had Hollywood’s mega-players pop up here and there: Marvel, of course, never left the field, and this week, Avatar comes back.
But we’ve never had a year where it just feels like everyone is fielding their A-teams, when the most prominent names are all going for broke.
Let’s run through them one by one: ...
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